Economic Rivalries Take the Lead
Rising economic confrontations between major powers—including sanctions, tariffs, and trade restrictions—are now seen as the biggest threat to global stability, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2026. The report, released ahead of the WEF’s annual Davos meeting, draws on insights from more than 1,300 experts and leaders across business, government, academia, and civil society.
Geoeconomic conflict tops the list for 2026, surpassing misinformation, societal polarisation, extreme weather, and armed conflict. Half of those surveyed expect a turbulent or stormy global environment over the next two years, up from 36% last year. Looking further ahead, the majority foresee prolonged instability across the next decade.
Economic and Geopolitical Threats Intensify
In the short term, 18% of respondents identified geoeconomic confrontation as the most likely trigger for a global crisis. Its severity ranking also rose eight positions from last year, while state-based armed conflict fell to fifth place in the two-year outlook.
The report highlights how rising rivalries and protracted conflicts threaten global supply chains, economic stability, and international cooperation. WEF notes that recent US trade policies, including wide-ranging tariffs, have disrupted commerce and strained budgets worldwide. Economic risks such as inflation, downturns, and potential asset bubbles are climbing rapidly, indicating a volatile near-term outlook. Meanwhile, 68% of experts expect the global order to remain multipolar or fragmented over the next decade.
Technology, Society, and Environment Remain Critical
Beyond economics, misinformation and disinformation rank as the second-highest short-term global risk, while cyber insecurity also remains a key concern. Long-term anxiety over artificial intelligence is growing, reflecting worries about its impact on jobs, security, and society. Societal polarisation and inequality continue to be major challenges, with inequality identified as the most interconnected risk for the second year in a row.
Environmental risks, while temporarily lower in short-term rankings, dominate the 10-year outlook. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth systems top the list, with three-quarters of respondents expecting a turbulent environmental future.
Saadia Zahidi, WEF Managing Director, stressed the importance of collaboration: “The challenges highlighted in this report—spanning geopolitical shocks, rapid technological change, climate instability, societal strife, and economic risks—underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”
