Precious metals have led global markets this year, propelled by rising geopolitical risks, expectations of looser monetary policy, and fragile global economic stability. Investors flocked to gold and silver, driving both to record highs and delivering some of the most dramatic annual gains in decades.
Gold surged to $4,481 (€3,797) per troy ounce in 2025, a jump of roughly 55–70% year-on-year. Silver, often considered the “lesser” metal, outpaced gold in percentage gains, climbing 130–140% to reach nearly $69 (€58) per ounce by late 2025. Once sidelined by modern financial instruments like currency, bonds, and real estate, precious metals staged a comeback in a year marked by tariff battles, central banks diversifying away from the US dollar, and persistent political uncertainty.
This week, gold rose as much as 2.4% and silver climbed 3.4% amid renewed US-Venezuela tensions, following reports that the US Navy attempted to seize a third Venezuelan-linked oil tanker. While gold prices do not directly correlate with Venezuela, the situation signals broader risks to markets. Political and security crises like the standoff with Venezuela trigger investor concern over energy supply disruptions, sanctions escalation, and rising great-power friction. Gold and silver appeal in these conditions because they are not controlled by any government, do not rely on corporate earnings, carry no default risk, and are difficult to sanction or freeze.
January–March: Tariffs Spark Early Safe-Haven Demand
Gold entered 2025 at elevated levels, reflecting uncertainties about inflation, interest rates, and spillovers from the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. In March, it surged past $3,000 (€2,544) per ounce for the first time as fears mounted over new and expanding US tariffs under President Donald Trump, particularly on steel, aluminium, and potential broader trade measures. Markets interpreted these developments as signals of an escalating trade war and rising inflation risk, prompting investors to buy gold as a safe haven. Silver’s initial response was more subdued.
April–June: Middle East Tensions Lift Safe-Haven Flows
The announcement of Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs on 2 April drove spot gold above $3,100 (€2,628) per troy ounce, reflecting investor anxiety over trade escalation. Prices continued to climb through spring and early summer, reaching new highs of $3,354 (€2,842) per ounce as geopolitical stress widened, particularly between Iran and Israel. In late June, the US Air Force and Navy attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran amid the Iran–Israel war, further reinforcing gold’s safe-haven appeal.
July–September: Fed Disputes and Full Tariff Rollout Strengthen Rally
A public clash between Trump and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell over interest rates amplified gold’s mid-year rally. Trump repeatedly criticized Powell for keeping rates high and demanded cuts that Powell refused, fueling speculation about potential changes in Fed leadership. Spot gold climbed above $3,400 (€2,883) per ounce as investors weighed monetary policy uncertainty alongside unresolved global trade risks. On 11 July, Trump unveiled a sweeping tariff package, largely implemented by 1 August, which coincided with central banks boosting gold holdings as part of long-term reserve diversification. Silver maintained its momentum, hitting $38.46 per ounce in mid-July.
October–November: Gold Tops $4,000 Amid Trade and Policy Uncertainty
Gold crossed $4,000 (€3,392) per ounce in early October as safe-haven demand intensified against the backdrop of expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions. By 13 October, it rose above $4,133 (€3,504) amid persistent US–China trade conflicts. Brief optimism over trade talks in late October trimmed gains temporarily, but the upward trend remained intact. Investors also monitored the risk of a US government shutdown and ongoing criticism of the Fed from the Trump administration. By late November, gold was poised for its fourth consecutive monthly gain at around $4,210 (€3,567), while silver climbed to a record near $56.78 (€48.12) per ounce.
December: Record Highs Amid Venezuela Tensions
Late December marked the year’s most dramatic phase. Gold exceeded $4,490 per troy ounce, while silver approached $70 per ounce as investors sought safe havens amid reports of US military action and attempts to seize Venezuelan oil tankers. Markets also factored in expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, which could reduce real yields and sustain bullion demand, compounded by a weakening US dollar.
